Aib Private Banking

Only three months ago, Gordon Brown said he had "saved" the banks. Unfortunately, it is increasingly likely that he will have to register them again, this time taking some of them in public ownership. With the ban on short selling in the United Kingdom today revoked, you can short the banks in the United Kingdom and earn lots of money if nationalization does occur.

There is no official plan to nationalize the banks in the United Kingdom or older at the time put in place a "bad bank" system. So why the banks collapse in prices this week? Well, more and more market analysts now believe that the UK is on a course of "creeping nationalization." Nationalization would lose a lot of shareholders. Like the stock market has a mechanism of looking, he has to update the share prices of banks by the probability that they are nationalized. Some have been reduced by more than the others. Let's take a look at them.

The current state of UK banks

Royal Bank of Scotland is undoubtedly top the list for the nationalization. After warnings that 2008 losses could reach 28 billion pounds and increased involvement of government at 70%, the path to public ownership seems to be inevitable. It looks like a sorry finish for a company, which currently accounts for only a‚¬ 5 billion, has paid 50 billion pounds in cash for ABN AMRO is only 18 months. high ambition or foolish pride?

The acquisition of HBOS Lloyds TSB shotgun led the gathering about £ 21 billion in assets for nearly half that price. They have also secured funds for major bailout help the new Lloyds Banking Group work. But the risk now seems to outweigh the benefits. Lloyds is already 43% state and if they accept the offer of the new British government, the taxpayer will become the majority shareholder. This is not something that management would like, but they will struggle to resist the new deal for very long. And if they can not prove the viability of their independence in the coming months, the government will just have to respond anyway. The clock is ticking.

Barclays could easily be in the same condition as RBS, but for the fact that their bid for ABN AMRO has failed. This allowed them to avoid the necessity of the bailout money to date. But time is running out for them. They agreed to buy Lehman Brothers' U.S. operations for 1 million pounds when they really could not afford. Their balance sheet is looking vulnerable with many unknowns. And any time in this crisis where the unknowns became known, the stock plunged. Barclays will have to take some sort of government funding today. But there is more speculation in the market, they are also in the direction of nationalization.

HSBC will survive (Famous Last Words!) In fact, they have more deposits than Priceloans Standard Chartered Share in the UK which gives them the ability to absorb losses and writedowns, of which there were many. Their size, diversification and solvency have seen to become the world's largest bank by market capitalization.

Standard Chartered has also performed admirably in this crisis, mainly because of their focus on emerging markets, particularly Asia. They continue to produce strong results and positive future directions, which means they are a growth company rare in these times of rapid debt reduction.

More problems for the Irish banks

In Ireland, the same issues of nationalization are invited. Allied Irish Bank and Bank of Ireland have seen their share prices plunge by 58% and 57% respectively since the beginning of the week. They need more money and can not attract private investors to give them. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said there are no proposals to nationalize one of them ... but he said the same of the Anglo-Irish Bank until shortly before.

The remaining third bank Irish public and Irish Li